Reg in AtL
Reg in AtL
State of the race: Possibilities and Election Strategies for 2024
In this episode Reggie and Doug unpack the strategies, personalities, and issues that are shaping the race for the highest office in the land. From the early rumblings of potential candidates to strategic campaign moves, and unexpected twists.
It's Reggie ATL, coming to you from the London City of Atlanta, georgia, going out to Clinton, indiana, with Doug Hess. Doug, how's it going? It's great, reggie. Thanks for having me on Always a pleasure man.
Speaker 1:We'll take some time out here and I'm going to go ahead and get my politics warning. I feel like, as we're going into the 2024 election season, I should pre-record a politics warning and just put it at the beginning of every show. Listen, guys, I know we've talked about fun subjects. We might talk about movies, finance, whatever else going on in the world but we're about to discuss politics. It's offensive. It's like how you give those not safe to work or radar or offensive subject kind of wings at the beginning of videos. I feel like I should just pre-record those, because we're going to have more of these conversations. We'll call this the state of the race and this is going to be our first day of the race episode, because it's very early in the race. There really is only one race, to be honest, with you, the Democrats. That's kind of boring, unless you count RFK Jr, which I don't really count him at this particular point in time. Are you familiar with RFK Jr and what he's been out there talking about?
Speaker 2:Absolutely. Obviously, I'm following because both of us are political junkies. I'm following both sides of it. I really believe, as we get closer and closer to the first primary in January, which is only four months away, which is crazy I think there's going to be several others that's going to jump in besides RFK Jr. I think you're also going to see, probably the governor of California on the Democrat side jump in, jumping in to try to run for president.
Speaker 2:Yes, absolutely. Wow, that'll be interesting. I think you're going to see those too. I'm not 100% sure Biden's going to run, I mean, I mean no disrespect to the president, but some of the gaps and some of the things that he is doing is, I think, making some Democrats uncomfortable as well.
Speaker 1:I think there's a big trap here to a certain degree. I'm going to explain to you what I mean. The trap comes in, in my opinion, Doug, when people look at, because this happens every single election cycle. Americans are disenchanted with their choices. They don't like either choice. They don't like, in this particular case, we'll say Trump, because Trump's front runner, but it could be dissent or whatever they don't like.
Speaker 1:they don't want to, because I think the survey done was like Americans don't want Trump or Biden, they just want something fresh. This is something we hear going into every election cycle and it ends up still being the Democratic and it still ends up being the two.
Speaker 1:right, you got a guy who says I'm going to run third party because we need another choice. Well, good luck with that. Tell you how that's gone the last 200 years. It has not worked out. I don't think it's going to work out this time either. I just don't. I can tell the money follows those hearts, because people have their heart and what they express, right, right. But then they either they still give to the RNC or the DNC. They still give to the same machines that are giving them the same choices all the time. There's no LNC, there's no libertarian national Was it convention? Or I'm not sure if that's what the C stands for.
Speaker 2:Right. Well, I think there is conventions, but they just don't have the clout that the other two have in. The system is, in a way, kind of rigged for just the two parties.
Speaker 1:Correct, correct and Doug. Do you see that changing this time around? Like, as much as people say they're disenchanted with these two choices, do you see any kind of realistic hope for a third choice?
Speaker 2:No. Well, let me clarify that and say the short answer is no. The long answer is I'm not so sure. One of the two sides is a Democrat or Republican isn't hoping for a third party? Oh, I think they're. Both are.
Speaker 1:And they're both hoping they take the mood from the other guy.
Speaker 2:Absolutely so. So in realistically no, a third party isn't going to happen. But I think privately both sides are saying yeah more than Marrior.
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely they're looking for. Maybe get to a plurality type situation right Like yeah and.
Speaker 1:I could see that and it just sounds. I'm not trying to like rain on anybody's parade here, but it just sounds way too aspirational to me. Like it. Until I see something statistically Doug that backs that notion that that there can legitimately be a third choice that legitimately has a shot at winning the race, then I don't see, I don't. I mean, you're just gonna take votes from somebody. Yes, that's what you're going to do, correct, correct, and I think that get over the line.
Speaker 2:The closest we've ever really seen a third party was Ross Perot.
Speaker 1:Perot yes.
Speaker 2:Bush versus Clinton and I think, a lot of cases that help Clinton get elected. What was it back in the 80s, 1980 wasn't a John Anderson that ran as a third party candidate. He was a Republican in Iran, but it really didn't go anywhere. To me personally, I think that was the birth of the third party was with John Anderson Many, many moons ago in the 80s if I've ever got my dates right, I believe it was in 1980s campaign Carter versus Reagan, and that was really the birth. And then we probably saw the most serious candidate was Ross Perot.
Speaker 2:But other than those two, you're always going to have talk. I mean, let's face it, Trump back in the early 80s, 90s I've got my numbers right when that occurred he kind of played around with the third party candidate, yeah for sure. So there has been talk. There actually has been some success. If you will, I think Ross Perot was probably the most successful as those third party candidates. But right now I just don't see if the two parties can agree on anything, on anything out there. It's that we only need two parties.
Speaker 1:Yeah, you're fabulous. That's a fabulous analysis there, though, because I am. I think that's spot on. I think that there's, if anything, they want no more parties, unless they feel like it's going to hurt the other party.
Speaker 2:That's not the party they want.
Speaker 1:Interesting is if we talk about because I'm thinking the Gavin Newsom situation is in child RFK junior, get out of here. That's not happening. But the Gavin Newsom is interesting and I think Newsom does have a shot at I don't. I don't know if the machine would get behind him this particular time, because it's hard to run up against an incumbent in this party. It's just difficult to do. But I think Newsom is an interesting thought, kind of how I thought of Well, let me let me say this the right way I thought of the sense has been an interesting shot.
Speaker 1:I didn't, I never liked the Sanchez. I always thought I feel the same way about him now that I felt about him back then. But I still looked at it from outside. You know, I look at this from like a sports perspective. I don't need to like teams, analyze the game, so to speak, and I thought, hey, you know he's, he can be a contender here if he, you know, made that decision. And I feel the same way about Newsom. I can't do some can be a contender if he decides to make that decision. I'm not sure if he's gonna make it this year or not, but it'd be interesting to see in where all the action is right now is in the Republican Party, got a few people that are jumping in and I would say, baby, how many candidates here? Let me think here because we have, before we go over any poll numbers, you have Trump to Santis Chris.
Speaker 1:Hey, what got for gosh, he was even in the race. Right, the kid a vivic. I won't want to butcher his last name, but he's yeah, he's in there Mike Pence.
Speaker 2:There as well.
Speaker 1:I think he's. He's man. I mean, we'll do our. Do we have a shots here at some point in this show? But I'm a spoiler alert, I don't think he does, but it's. It's interesting. He is in the race. So when you look at it, how many of the? Obviously, but do you think genuinely have a chance? Maybe there's like three or four of these guys that didn't have a chance. Now it's very early. That's why we're sure he stayed in the race episodes that we do. It's only episode one of these because gonna be your few of these, because it's gonna change for sure. That's the only thing we know for certain. Right, we know for certain things will change.
Speaker 2:And I'll make my prediction right now for you on the on the Republican side I think it's gonna be Trump. I really do, and I'm not saying that he is the guy. I'm not saying that I would vote for him. I'm just looking at the early numbers and I really think it's gonna be Trump. I saw in Iowa where he spoke was it yesterday over in Iowa and he had a Really nice following I I just think there's going to be something there for him. Desantis, one of the last times I looked at one of his crowds out in Iowa there was like a handful of people there.
Speaker 1:Yeah, as a disaster campaign.
Speaker 2:Absolutely so. I really think it's going to be Trump's to lose, and when I say his to lose, meaning the nomination. I really believe that he's gonna be in there. I'm not so sure, and of course, you probably expect me to say this From the other side, but I really think the race is going to be For the Democrat side. Who is going to? Because I'm not convinced that one Biden will be there After and I don't know they change this it's not Iowa. I was not the first caucus this year. Is that right? Did I hear that?
Speaker 1:I don't know. I know it's between Iowa and New Hampshire, right? Those are the first. Yeah, that's, that's the two that people seem to be jockeying for, at least yeah.
Speaker 2:And you know what Iowa and New Hampshire always do things a little bit different. I mean, we look about it. We've seen Steve Forge, we've seen oh, my cocky bee has won Out in Iowa before and these guys have that went on to win the the presidency. So I'm not so sure that you don't see a surprise like an RFG junior or Somebody else winning the Democratic primary out in Iowa or New Hampshire early. But I wouldn't say that that's necessarily an indicator of what's going to happen long term. I we know that the Democrats have a history of the super delegates that helps secure Candidates on the Democrat side. So I think there's a lot of politics to play out between now and November 2024.
Speaker 1:That's for sure. And, doug, you didn't exactly step out on a limb there with that Trump Destroying the field right now, and I don't. It's interesting because the the the way that I had to look at that question was definitely more so of who's got a shot versus Is Trump gonna win, because that just seems like the writing on the wall right now right, like it just seems like there's nobody. That's good. He's destroying the field, right now.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so I do. You feel like there is a legit shot for for your, your, chris Christie's and your and let's talk about Rhonda Santis for a second, because let's pivot on him, because I think he absolutely sucks right now. This is this is it's interesting, doug, because from politics, I definitely have my. I want the Democrats to win. I make no sure, no, bones about.
Speaker 2:I don't hide that yeah but I like the game.
Speaker 1:I think I'm gonna watch the game. I want my team to win every time they play, but I want to still watch the game and I'm a fan of the process.
Speaker 1:You know what I mean absolutely, absolutely, absolutely as well as I'm watching the game be played. This answers is playing a horrible game. He's just playing a horrible, horrible game. Like for one, I had a conversation with a friend of mine from Florida the years and years and years back and I remember telling her cuz she was talking about certain things in Florida and we're talking about elections and things like that and I remember telling her I said, hey, you know, things are very different in the country than they are in Florida, like the electorate very different in the country than it is in Florida, like it's Florida's an outlier. You can't use that as like you're the bellwether, so to speak, to feel like, hey, well, if this worked in Florida, it'll work here, and I think we're seeing that play out to a certain degree. I don't think his message of make America Florida is not resonating, right, what do you thought on that?
Speaker 2:Well, here's what I'll say that running a state campaign or a statewide campaign is very different. I did run in a national campaign, so let me say that, and I really think the Santas is running a state campaign at the national level instead of a national campaign. I hope that makes sense to you and your listeners.
Speaker 1:Yeah, absolutely.
Speaker 2:It's like he hasn't shifted gears to that national light, and so that's where I think he has got stuck a little bit. He hasn't made that transition. And the other thing is, in a lot of cases I think he's a miniature Trump the way that he attacks and goes after, and there's only one Trump out there, whether you love him or have him. And I think a lot of people are looking at the Santas as and I don't mean it as harsh as I'm getting ready to say is a second-tier candidate in the state campaign, in the sense that there's only one Master, one professional, and the Santas is coming across as an amateur Versus the big boy, if that makes sense to you.
Speaker 1:Perfect, because what I'm gonna say here is gonna kind of echo those those thoughts. You can't run as a guy if the guy is in the race, ladies and gentlemen, right, you cannot run as Trump if Trump is actually running. Right, you would have to wait till he's not running to have this. That you can't run as Trump, like when Trump is actually running. You would have to run as Trump, like with Trump, not running 2028 campaign, like that you should have just signed on. So I'm not gonna run in 2028. He's.
Speaker 1:I'm not a huge fan of Trump, but I will tell you this he did get disdain to the cross that line in Florida and he and count what countless others account was out because of his popularity. Sure, he is more popular than you guys and I've told you this for years, doug, he is more popular than the other guys. He's just more popular than you. Whether you hate him, whether you love them, they're not as popular. So it's kind of like he's Trump's gonna show up. Trump can show up anywhere. And one thing that Trump has going for him Same thing that our source nigga had going for him when he ran for the governor of Florida Is he was already a celebrity.
Speaker 2:Yes.
Speaker 1:To run up against a celebrity and some of the Democrats Found us out the hard way because Barack Obama became a political celebrity. And it's hard to run up against a political celebrity and Barack Obama was gonna be the first black president. That's hard to run against because you can't be that. You know what I mean. You can't just turn yourself into that. I remember one of the Remember John Edwards wife saying that back in the day, like he can't be the first black president and it was taking up all the oxygen in the room at the time because you can't just transform yourself into that. And then he became something else to where you became a politician that becomes a celebrity in Like the same way that your Mitch McConnell's do. Some of these put probably some of these politicians that end up becoming bigger Than the state, bigger than what they represent, because they end up becoming a name themselves. And that name, once it becomes a name, is just very hard to beat.
Speaker 2:Except for I'll give you one exception, but I agree with 100% of what you just said, except one exception with Hillary Clinton. I think she she gave Barack Obama run for her money, or for his money, because she was looking to be the first woman president, woman president, and she was favorite, doug.
Speaker 1:She came out the gates.
Speaker 2:She was a fave, yeah, so she had celebrity status, if we will, political status status, and she was Going to make history if she would have won, just as Barack Obama was doing it as well. So that's just an example, but that doesn't happen every day. I mean, that's in a way, a fluke.
Speaker 1:that to To first, if you will, we're running right and we were running in the same in the same in the same party.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and the same party, correct, right. When you look at here with the Republicans, and when you look at how far and away Donald Trump is more known than the other individuals running in this race yeah, race, it's not in day like so. If Trump, trump could show up anywhere, and whether people hate him or love him, there's many people who just show up because he's just Trump, because he was already Trump before, right, so right, he can just show up and he's been a strong spin, a celebrity what? 30, 40 years now? Yeah, so he can just show up anywhere and then have an audience because he's been a celebrity for four decades. So, and a no name, a known quantity, for four decades so you know it's been very well like four years right.
Speaker 2:And then feel like you can be.
Speaker 1:Trump now.
Speaker 2:Absolutely, because he's got 40 years on you, he does, yeah, yeah, so it's it's. It's gonna be interesting to see how this all plays out. Of course, there's another indictment that I, I understand, is getting ready to drop any time in Georgia. That's the Georgia one coming, you know, and I have to ask the question at some time, at some point. Does that start to help?
Speaker 1:Trump to where people I think it does in the beginning. I think it's going to now for sure. Yeah, people are gonna feel like he has to win to stay out of jail.
Speaker 2:Just stay out of jail but also be like I mean, what did this guy do really that everybody's attacking him from this this, this, this and this. Some of it sounds silly, some of it people may say is a little bit more serious and to where, I think, at some point, trump.
Speaker 1:Actually, this negativity actually becomes a positive for him, as it has been throughout his political career. They that means to be what has happened here on things that would be negative for other people.
Speaker 2:And some people just have that touch. It wouldn't help me. I'd be like Throw him away. You know, stone aim or something right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, we we'd be put under the jail, or whereas, yeah, as Trump is, definitely it's gonna help him to a certain degree and I think that. So, if I'm looking at the indictments and we're talking about the indictment portion of Sure this race is, will will be, and how the effect, cuz I think it'll have some effect. I don't know if it'll have. I think the race will still be the race, sure, but this will definitely be a hang on him, an overhang on him. When I look at all the indictments, this is the one that I feel like is going to hurt, like the Georgia one is the one that hurts, so that's the stormy.
Speaker 1:The New York one I think we're bragging the payments and stuff like that if I'm gonna put them in order and I'll put that at the last and put at the bottom. Sure, january 6th, maybe second, second, third or so in there, you know, maybe, maybe, maybe that, because I don't really know how they can get him on the January 6th, but maybe maybe I'm not also not a prosecutor. I mean, clearly they're not gonna bring federal charges, don't get brought lightly. So they know something to bring the charge, however, the Georgia one, where he has the hour and 11 hours, which I'll re listen to that phone call the other day because I'm a complete freakin nerd I'll listen to that phone call the other day. It's an hour and about a roughly an hour and 12 minutes. It's not good. It's not good if anybody who felt that any other human being on either side of the aisle let Barack Obama had called Georgia and had. Let's do this exact same phone call but change the name to invoice to Barack Obama.
Speaker 2:Mm-hmm.
Speaker 1:It is outrageous. Republicans are outraged. They would have brought the trial by now with two Democrats. What three years to bring this trial. Two or three years to bring this trial.
Speaker 1:Republicans would have brought it in to year and a half, two years. The Republicans would already been bringing this trial. It's I Don't know how you get out of it. I know that the the angle of you. If you're listening to Trump's lawyers on TV, the angle is kind of like it's a free speech. It's speech to ask for the votes.
Speaker 1:The speech, I guess if you, if I was just to ask for your money, doug, is speech if I tell you to give me your money, I guess that speech, I guess any type of, I think, most Crimes that are committed or maybe like white collar, there's a lot of crimes that are committed where speech is involved. So I'm not sure how they're gonna separate that, how these lawyers gonna try to outlaw your themselves into that, but I believe that's gonna become a question for us in one of our state of the races down the line. I don't see that they can lawyer another six months to a year out of this in my opinion. So I don't know if it's gonna really affect the race. I know that some of these are going in like next May or so, doug, right, but I don't think I mean what is it? It's August. Now I think they can push, I think good lawyers can push this back about a year because these are serious, serious charges and I don't I think they can push this past the election with just lawyering, in my opinion.
Speaker 2:Well, and if you look at May you mentioned the month of May Well, that is when Indiana has their primary and we are one of the last states. I mean, really, the only time that Indiana ever came into play and that I can remember is Obama versus Clinton. That was something, and I guess Trump versus Cruz also played a little bit into it. I just don't think, this time around, indiana is going to play a part in either primary when it comes to selecting the president.
Speaker 1:That's interesting, and I kind of agree with that because I feel like the dust would have settled by then. We're kind of kind of know who is and what's interesting to Doug. Let's just talk about this Like who's going to make it to January. I feel like we can even do that. Somebody's going to run out of money or something, Doug.
Speaker 2:Right, yeah, absolutely. And I saw where you know the Santa's, one of his billionaire backers has already jumped out and sort of pulling back.
Speaker 1:He's looking for more backers. He's putting 20 million dollars and he says that unless the Sanchez can get somebody else, another big donor he's not looking at the one of the 20 million dollars in there.
Speaker 2:Yeah, isn't that crazy to think 20 million and throwing it around like it's. You know, you and I having a change in our pocket. You know, yeah, man, play money. Yeah, must be nice.
Speaker 1:Yeah, he's looking for a reboot and the Sanchez has rebooted the reboot as of late I think he fired his campaign manager, so he's on a second reboot now. I think the issue is with the Sanchez is he's just not that likable. He's not personable, trump's way more personable. Trump's jokes are better. His shows are better. He knows his. You know, when you go to see him you can say they're better than the Sanchez is.
Speaker 1:It's like I don't know, looking at any metric, how the Santa's speech? I think. Basically, when I'm looking at the race in general from a public standpoint, I do think it's going to be Trump, because nothing, there's nothing that says it's not right. But your Chris Christie's of the world, I think are interesting, it's intriguing. So I'm going to give it to you from the other side of the aisle, so to speak. Okay, what I would like? There's two things I would like to happen in the Republican race right now. I need either Trump or the Sanchez to win the primary, and I need them. I need abortion to still be front and center because ever since ever since Dobbs happened Republicans are 0 and 7 in states in trying to strengthen abortion, strengthen pro life measures in states. I think the lead. The latest one was just Ohio a couple days ago. They've lost every single one of these, even in red states, I think in Kansas one of the first.
Speaker 2:Kansas yeah.
Speaker 1:They lost. So it's going to as long as they keep running on the abortion and as long as I can get the Santas or Trump. I like the Democratic chances because what a lot of people understand is they look at the votes last time right, and they say man, how can 80 million people vote for Joe Biden?
Speaker 1:and what they don't understand is, in my opinion and I'm going to give a numbers arbitrary, I'm not saying I've researched, yeah, 60%, but let's just say 50% I'm gonna say 40 million voted for Joe Biden and 40 million voted against Trump. So you're going to have people who vote against a candidate right, just don't like, and in Trump and abortion galvanized the Democrats like I've never seen anything like it. For what gets Democrats excited like Trump and abortion? So it's interesting. I want them to keep keep that. I remember telling you this to Doug remember in 2022 we had a conversation and I told you that the Dove decision was a God send to the midterms. I remember telling you this is a God send for the Democrats to the midterms because they did it right before the midterms and people are going to be pissed and then that red wave is not going to be what it would have been if that decision came down after the midterms.
Speaker 1:It's not as popular as a. It's not as popular outside the Republican Party and sometimes I guess not being in the Republican Party, because sometimes I'll ask you just genuine questions. I remember asking you genuinely when the race and people genuinely feel like Trump won the race and you're like, yeah, some people really genuinely feel like you want it and and it's interesting to me outside looking in that there's a disconnect there with with certain issues that Republicans take on and not knowing how unpopular those particular positions are. So in this particular situation, with the abortion issues, that's not a popular. It's not has about nothing has proven that that's a popular issue, but it's still one of the Republicans with hammer, hammer, hammer, hammer. So I want them to keep hammering that.
Speaker 1:I hope we get the Santas or Trump, because they're going to galvanize the Democrats way more than a Tim Scott or Chris Christie. Would we get Tim Scott or Chris Christie or somebody like that coming across the line? Democrats can be in trouble and they stopped talking about abortion. Democrats are going to be in trouble in 2024 because now you got to look at your candidate and see how your candidate runs versus running against the things that they are doing on the other side. What is your shot that you give a person like the Santas, since he is the one, the closest one? We could talk about these other people, but they're only like 3%, doug. I don't really know if they can even make the money. What is your shot for the Santas, I mean?
Speaker 2:out of 100%. I'm probably at 10% right now.
Speaker 1:I'm not going to be a good candidate for him.
Speaker 2:It's slim, yeah, and I'm being generous, giving him double digits Because it's just realistic. I mean, it's not that I have anything against a guy, it's just I'm giving an honest opinion and sometimes the truth hurts a little bit. And you know now, as we've said and we've done on the show before, a month from now, something could happen, something could drop and absolutely, and we have a brand new ballgame here. But barring any surprises October surprises, as they always like to say I really don't think it's going to be a game. I mean, I really don't think the game changes.
Speaker 1:So 10% for this. So what is what does if Doug was this? This answers his campaign manager. Well, your new one, because you would have been fired yesterday or a couple days.
Speaker 1:Yeah, the new campaign manager. What? How does he change his fortunes? Or change, because this has been a disaster in me from a couple of different standpoints. From one, the stuff he's doing in Florida is not gonna be popular around the country. When you're limited teaching by certain things, you're aborcin' at six weeks. It's aggressive. These things are not gonna be popular on the national stage, but they are already done now so you can't tell them to undo those things. What would your advice be to him to try to turn these things around?
Speaker 2:Well, basically, you have two options you either have to go for the jugular and go for the win, or because option two, where I would say you wanna probably not hit Trump too hard and try to be picked up as a VP, but since both of them resided in the state of Florida, that option is off the table for decisions.
Speaker 1:Is it? I didn't know that, yes, interesting.
Speaker 2:Yeah, so from a well, because basically it brings you no value because You're not picking up anybody, right? So if Trump wanted to pick up and I'm making something totally up here like California or New York, that makes sense, or Illinois, because that has electoral college value, but both of them, being from the same state, brings no value to the table, so that's off the table really. So my advice would be you're in it, let's go win it.
Speaker 1:So is that going more aggressively at Trump, do you feel like? Cause? You know he was kinda pussy-filling around there in the beginning. He didn't really. You know everybody had to kid gloves on cause they didn't wanna upset that massive base there, so-.
Speaker 2:And what happened.
Speaker 1:Is that taking the gloves off and just going for it? They're getting destroyed.
Speaker 2:Well, let's stop and think about it. What happened, you know, when he wasn't. When you're not picking a fight with Trump, trump's not picking a fight with you and he seems to leave you alone. And I thought DeSantis and some of the others, when they're not picking on Trump, actually do a little bit better in the polling.
Speaker 1:Well, you know, trump was mad. I don't think DeSantis ever had a chance cause Trump was mad that he was running period.
Speaker 1:Well, that's, true I feel like DeSantis has a. He doesn't have the same issue that. So I will say, DeSantis, if you look at the Republican race, I'm telling you people that have that issue right now, If you're Chris Christie, if you're Rod DeSantis, Chris Christie, Mike Pence, forget about it. He's got an issue with you coming into this race. He's already got a problem with you. I agree with him. If you're like the Tim Scott to the world of Vivix and other people that he doesn't really see as a threat, maybe maybe you do get that VP, not, I don't know. Maybe you know what I mean, Because he doesn't see you as a threat. You're not really a threat to him, you know.
Speaker 2:Yeah, and to the best of my knowledge, they've hit him a little bit, but they haven't rent out him like the Democrats do, or DeSantis has really tried to pick a fight with him, and so it'd be interesting to be a little fly on the wall to see what some of the strategy is for some of these campaigns and what's gonna happen. And, like I said, you know Iowa and New Hampshire. They're one of the first in the nation and for some reason I think Iowa changed, but I could be wrong on that, but I don't put a lot of stock on that. I think what you're gonna see is a firewall that starts with South Carolina, which I believe is in early February. That's where we're gonna start seeing some. That's where we're either gonna see some growth or we're gonna sit back, scratch your head and go, hey, we may just have a ball game here, folks.
Speaker 1:We know that's where Biden turned the corner.
Speaker 2:That's right.
Speaker 1:If you remember, Biden turned the corner in South Carolina and his left-. Got him across the board there, that's right, this is where Tim Scott's from.
Speaker 1:South Carolina. It is, it is, and you know what's crazy about this, and this is another death nail for your campaign. So, guys and I was another political show months back, and we're just talking about general politics, and this person had never thought about this, but it's very true. Like you don't need to be a political junkie, ladies and gentlemen, to see if you want to sound like one, though, if your candidate cannot win their state, it is over. It is over. If you cannot win your state, I don't feel like, at this point in time, the Sanchez can win Florida over Trump. I don't feel like he can. And if you can't win your state if Tim Scott, I don't think Tim Scott can win South Carolina over Trump.
Speaker 2:Well, I agree with you, Unless somebody knows something we don't.
Speaker 1:If you can't win these states, you're not going to be president. You need to win at least your state and this doesn't go just for like a senator. This is a senator, this is governor. That maybe even to say that you just reside in. If Mike Pence can't win Indiana, it's over.
Speaker 2:Well, if he's even around it in May, true, which I doubt. I mean yeah, yeah, and again, I'm not trying to be disrespectful to the vice president and the former governor, it's just that he may not be around. I mean, maybe we don't know, and that's why we play the game.
Speaker 1:I mean maybe he hangs out because I think that you got to. I don't know what breaks the Trump situation. I don't see any of these. None of the people that are running in the race have the charisma. I don't see it happening without Trump just bowing out. Like Trump would have to bow out of the race in order for there to be any oxygen left in the room for anybody else, and he doesn't look like he's going to do that.
Speaker 2:No, I think they'll have to take him off the stage kicking and screaming.
Speaker 1:So if that's the case, then our next few state of the race will probably be going along those lines. The next one we do will be after the debates. I think we have our first debate coming up here in a couple of weeks. I don't know if Trump shows up for that or not. It's interesting play that he's going with that. I do think that there's logic on both sides.
Speaker 1:So if you're Trump and you say, hey, I'm already up 30, 40 points on the second guy, on the second guy I'm running against, I can only go down by stepping on that debate stage, like I'm already up a significant point on this guy. There's no point in me doing it At the same time. I'm going to go down by stepping on that. Um, you could do it and show that you're not scared or that you're, because people are gonna say they're gonna frame it. You, if you leave it up to other people to frame that for you, to Chris Christie's of the world to frame it For you, and you're not there to say anything, or maybe you're just tweeting or you're on truth social or as opposed to being on that stage, then they can frame it. You're leaving it up to them. The frame an hour every day one. They're just gonna say you were scared to come out there. That's what they're gonna say.
Speaker 2:Oh, but remember what happened to Trump last time when he ran, I forget to it debate it was, and He'd refused to come on and he had a fundraiser, I believe it was for the military or something, if my memory. And Unless he does something like that which makes it hard to criticize. So if you know, I say well, you know, reggie was too scared to Come and debate me on on the national stage, and you come back and go, I wasn't there is because I was raising funds for our troops or our veterans. I think the eggs on me, not you, at that point.
Speaker 1:Well, he's also gonna probably do in classic Trump fashion, where he calls his own press conferences at certain His own his own rally at the same time where he has where he's no being able to. He could do a big watch party of the debates and still a big Outright.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and I made all the candidates and still probably outrate what the debates would be. So I, I get, I get that. I just hope he, I hope he does, I don't. I'm not super concerned. This is too early in the game. Sure, I'm not super concerned about this debate because somebody, see, people won't be around, right, when it's really all said and done, and when you really get down to brass packs in January, right, and you're forever really start to kind of get down to it, yeah, then we're really gonna see who what's what, so to speak.
Speaker 1:Right, we're gonna kind of know have a better idea of who's who's where, who's what and what's really at stake. Somebody's two, three percent like I don't, do you? Really that's not a knock on the Nikki Haley's and Mike Pence's of the world, but I just don't see it. Man and the ace of Hutchison's get out of here. I just don't see it. I don't see it like it's. I want to say only it's like the any given Sunday. Right, you want to say a team has a chance to win, but if you're going up against the powerhouse and you're a team with the lowest payroll, it's like that in maybe you went out of luck, but it's puncher's chance, maybe at that time, at that point. But that's kind of how I view these candidates. They're not really contenders and it's hard even for me to say right now that this answers is really contending. Um, yeah, it doesn't really seem to be a second contender here, with Trump getting over 50% of the party going his way. So I guess we'll see what happens here down the line.
Speaker 1:I definitely appreciate you. Taking some time out with a fellow political junkie here there does always a pleasure. Reggie, thank you for having me on. You got it, my friend, this Reggie Nate. Oh, check us out to try heart radio, google podcast, apple podcast, spotify, wherever you find your podcast. See you next time.